2025 was more than a record-breaking year for copper in Mongolia—it was a year of transformation. At the heart of the story is Oyu Tolgoi, the nation’s flagship copper mine, long seen as the backbone of Mongolia’s mining ambitions. As copper prices hit record highs and exports accelerated, a historic shift in leadership was unfolding under intense public and political scrutiny.

For the first time in its history, a Mongolian would take the helm: Munkhsukh S. officially became CEO this week, stepping into a role long held by foreign executives. Simultaneously, the government began reshaping the mine’s Board of Directors, reviewing current representatives and appointing new members.

Together, these moves signal a turning point — Mongolia is asserting greater control over its most strategic resource, just as copper cements its role at the center of the national economy.

With leadership shifting at home, 2025 also proved extraordinary for Mongolia’s copper sector.

2025 was a defining year for the country’s extractive industry, marked by a historic rebalancing of its “twin pillars”—coal and copper. For the first time in the modern era, copper revenue decoupled from the broader cooling of bulk commodity markets, transforming from a secondary export into the nation’s primary fiscal safeguard.

Copper concentrate exports generated $5.83 billion, a staggering 76% increase in value compared to 2024, while coal revenues plummeted by 33.7% to $5.77 billion despite record-breaking volumes, marking copper’s increasing role in the mining sector. 

Export revenue growth was driven by Oyu Tolgoi’s underground ramp-up and high-grade Hugo North ore, boosting “metal value” without higher costs, while the average realized price jumped 30% to $2,545.5/ton.

This strong domestic performance mirrored broader trends in the global market. As Mongolia captured more value from its high-grade ore and rising prices, the world was experiencing its own copper squeeze—supply constraints and surging demand were turning the long-anticipated global deficit into a daily reality.

In 2025, the global copper market’s supply crunch and surging demand made the copper deficit a daily reality

Global copper futures jumped over 30% in 2025, reaching $12,960/ton by late December, before surging to a record $14,527.50/ton on the LME in January 2026. The rally was fueled by a rare “perfect storm” of structural supply constraints, surging demand, and supportive macro conditions—driven in particular by AI-related copper demand, U.S. tariff distortions, and global monetary stimulus. 2025 was the year "The Copper Deficit" stopped being a theoretical future problem and became a daily operational reality. 

2026 Outlook: What to Expect and What to Watch?

The strategy for 2026 moves beyond simply "digging for growth" to capturing the full economic lifecycle of Mongolia's resources. Supported by the 2026 Minerals Law amendments, the outlook centers on three high-impact pillars:

• The Royalty Reform: The shift to Mongolian Stock Exchange-linked pricing replaces rigid international benchmarks with real market prices, provided companies sell at least 25% of their output through the exchange. This reform significantly lowers the effective tax burden for exporters during price dips and resolves long-standing tax disputes between the state and private miners.
• The "Critical Minerals" Roadmap: Mongolia has officially prioritized 11 essential minerals, including copper, lithium and rare earths, and is fast-tracking their exploration through a new application-based licensing system.
• The Industrial "Value-Add" Pivot: New legislative incentives and royalty offsets are being introduced to support domestic smelting and refining facilities. By transforming raw concentrate into refined products like copper cathodes, companies can capture higher profit margins and benefit from reduced logistical costs compared to shipping bulk raw ore.

What started as a price-driven rally in 2025 has become a structural shift, with copper anchoring fiscal stability, supporting the currency, and driving industrial growth. As global deficits persist and domestic production scales up, copper is set to define Mongolia’s economic trajectory for the next decade—replacing coal as the country’s most critical resource.

CMM Investment Platform is the premier gateway to Mongolia’s capital markets, offering investors a curated pipeline of high-potential copper and other critical mineral projects. Vetted by local experts, the platform provides the strategic tools and transparency needed to navigate this frontier market with confidence. Explore more active copper and other critical mineral projects opportunities on CMM Platform.

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