As we approach 2026 and look back at 2025, it’s fun to imagine what the year ahead might bring. Here, we’ve outlined five investment themes to watch in Mongolia—yes, we’re feeling a bit optimistic!  🤞

1. Bonds: Refinancing in a More Constructive Credit Environment

Mongolia’s approximately USD 5 billion international bond market is expected to be active in 2026, driven primarily by a forthcoming refinancing cycle. Around USD 1.8 billion of Mongolian sovereign and corporate bonds mature in 2027, positioning 2026 as a natural window for pre-emptive issuance.

The Government of Mongolia, alongside leading issuers such as Golomt Bank, TDB and MIK, is likely to explore refinancing opportunities aimed at extending maturities and optimizing funding costs. In addition, improved sovereign and corporate credit profiles may pave the way for new issuers to access international markets for the first time—particularly if global market conditions remain supportive.

Crucially, this refinancing cycle differs from previous episodes. Issuance is now taking place against a backdrop of stronger fiscal discipline, improved external balances, and enhanced market credibility, reflected in recent credit rating improvements. For global fixed-income investors, Mongolian bonds offer exposure to a frontier-market credit story where spreads increasingly reflect underlying fundamentals—an attractive proposition should global monetary conditions ease or stabilize.

For further details, see CMM’s Investor Guide to Mongolian Bonds.

2. Climate Finance Momentum Following COP17

Mongolia will host the 17th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP17) to the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) in August 2026, bringing global attention to issues of land restoration, drought resilience, and desertification. The event positions Mongolia within the broader global climate agenda and elevates its visibility among multilateral institutions, development finance providers, and ESG-focused investors.

Beyond its symbolic importance, COP17 serves as a platform for policy signaling, project origination, and capital mobilization. It is likely to accelerate the development of investable project pipelines across sectors such as renewable energy, sustainable infrastructure, water management, and climate adaptation. For global investors, these opportunities are often accompanied by concessional financing, guarantees, or blended finance structures, improving downside protection and enhancing risk-adjusted returns.

For Mongolia, COP17 represents a rare convergence of international attention and capital availability—creating a window to attract large-scale climate financing into both public and private green projects, while strengthening institutional and regulatory alignment with global sustainability standards.

3. State-Owned Enterprise Reform and Capital Market Access

The newly formed Government of Mongolia has announced an ambitious agenda to fully and partially privatize a selected group of state-owned enterprises (SOEs), with capital market listings identified as the primary execution route. Both domestic and international IPOs are under consideration, signaling an effort to broaden the investor base and accelerate capital market development.

The scale of this opportunity is significant. In 2024, the targeted SOEs reported combined net profits of approximately ₮5.7 trillion (USD ~1.7 billion). Applying a conservative price-to-earnings multiple of 8–10, broadly in line with regional peers in the mining and energy sectors, implies an aggregate equity valuation of ₮45–57 trillion (USD 13–17 billion). Depending on the eventual privatization ratio—estimated between 10% and 66%—IPO activity could realistically generate ₮4.5–37 trillion (USD 1.3–11 billion) in new equity capital. At the upper end, such issuance would materially exceed the current size of Mongolia’s listed equity market.

Timing will be shaped by political incentives. With a presidential election scheduled for 2027, SOE reform represents one of the most visible and high-impact policy levers available to the current administration. This creates a strong likelihood that several IPOs will be executed in 2026, with additional offerings prepared for early 2027, as the government seeks to demonstrate progress on governance reform, transparency, and private-sector participation.

For further details, see CMM’s Investor Guide to Mongolian SOEs.

4. Renewable Energy: Policy Reform Translating into Project Execution

Following a prolonged period of energy sector reform initiated after the 2024 elections, 2026 may represent an inflection point where policy groundwork translates into tangible project execution. Structural power deficits, rising demand, and energy security considerations have increased the urgency of bringing new generation capacity online—particularly from renewable sources.

Momentum is already visible. In 2025, the Government of Mongolia signed memoranda of understanding with international partners including the EBRD, ACWA Power, and UPC, covering renewable energy projects with an aggregate potential investment value in the multi-billion-dollar range. These agreements signal growing alignment between public-sector priorities and international capital providers.

At the same time, domestic energy companies are advancing their own renewable pipelines while actively seeking strategic partnerships, project-level equity, and long-term financing from international investors. With much of the regulatory and commercial framework now in place, the remaining constraint is largely political authorization and execution decisions—a hurdle that is increasingly likely to be cleared in 2026 as energy security and investment delivery become policy priorities.

Watch the presentations and discussions on energy potential at Mongolia Investment Forum: New York 2025. 

5. Mining: Regulatory Adjustment to Reignite FDI

Mining remains central to Mongolia’s FDI story, but investment has historically been constrained by regulatory and fiscal uncertainty. 2026 could mark a turning point, with potential amendments to the Minerals Law aimed at addressing key barriers—such as expanding exploration licensing and lowering copper royalties.

A recent policy brief by the Think Mongol Institute, an independent economic policy think tank in Mongolia, highlights the importance of reducing copper royalties and diversifying the mining sector beyond coal and copper, signaling a policy shift that could make Mongolia more attractive to international mining investors. For global capital, these reforms may unlock new opportunities in both greenfield exploration and brownfield expansions.